The news is bleak for South Africa if you’re an Olympic fan.
PricewaterhouseCoopers and its smart economists have rattled the bones and come up with a projection of who will win what at the Rio Olympics.
Despite local sport bosses having stuck their necks out and predicted a haul of 10 medals, PwC’s boffins don’t even rank SA in the top 30 with nations like New Zealand, Azerbaijan and even Iran reckoned to have a greater chance.
The study is well worth a read, but for those with short attention spans, here’s a summary of the key findings:
- Brazil team set to benefit from “home town” effect.
- Economic size matters in medal tally – but David can still beat Goliath.
- US and China to renew their top-of-the-table tussle in 2016.
- The US will again head the table, capturing a few more medals than in London. China will again be in second place in the table.
- Now it is no longer the host country, Great Britain may find it difficult to match its exceptional performance in London 2012 – though the PwC model suggests it should remain as high as fourth in the medal table.
- Host nations generally punch above their weight at the Olympics, which bodes well for the Brazil team in Rio, despite the country’s recent economic problems. The model projects they could win around 25 medals in Rio, up from 17 in London.
- Of the under-performing nations relative to population and GDP, the model still suggests that India leads the way.
The following economic and political factors were found to be statistically significant in explaining the number of medals won by each country at previous Olympic Games:
- Size of economies (measured by GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates).
- Performance in the previous two Olympic Games.
- Whether the country is host nation.
In general, the number of medals won increases with the population and economic wealth of the country; but there are exceptions like Jamaica and Kenya. Jamaica, for example, is projected to win 0.4 medals in Rio for every $bn of GDP, while the same ratio is only around 0.02 for the UK and Russia, and around 0.005-0.006 for the US and China.
“David can sometimes beat Goliath in the Olympic arena, although superpowers like the US and China continue to dominate the top of the medals table,” says PwC chief economist John Hawksworth.
In the extract below, the model estimates the top 12 medal-winning countries in Rio compared to London 2012 – the full table is lower down.
Country | Model estimate of medal total in Rio 2016 | Medal total in London 2012 | Difference |
1. US | 108 | 103 | +5 |
2. China | 98 | 88 | +10 |
3. Russia1 | 70 | 81 | -11 |
4. Great Britain | 52 | 65 | -13 |
5. Germany | 40 | 44 | -4 |
6. Australia | 35 | 35 | 0 |
7. France | 34 | 34 | 0 |
8. Japan | 33 | 38 | -5 |
9. South Korea | 27 | 28 | -1 |
10. Italy | 26 | 28 | -2 |
11. Brazil | 25 | 17 | +8 |
12. Ukraine | 20 | 20 | 0 |
- If Russian athletes are not able to compete, this will have a material impact on the medal totals of other countries.
Past Olympic performance is important, reflecting the stronger sporting traditions in some countries, and the level of government funding for Olympic sports. Adds John Hawksworth: “We can see this effect at work in China recently, where state support contributed greatly to their Olympic success in Beijing and London.”
Naturally, all models are subject to margins of error and can never take full account of the human factor of exceptional individual performances.
Country | Model estimate of medal total in Rio 2016 | Medal total in London 2012 | Difference |
1. USA | 108 | 103 | +5 |
2. China | 98 | 88 | +10 |
3. Russia | 701 | 81 | -11 |
4. Great Britain | 52 | 65 | -13 |
5. Germany | 40 | 44 | -4 |
6. Australia | 35 | 35 | 0 |
7. France | 34 | 34 | 0 |
8. Japan | 33 | 38 | -5 |
9. South Korea | 27 | 28 | -1 |
10. Italy | 26 | 28 | -2 |
11. Brazil | 25 | 17 | +8 |
12. Ukraine | 20 | 20 | 0 |
13. Canada | 17 | 18 | -1 |
14. Netherlands | 17 | 20 | -3 |
15. Spain | 17 | 17 | 0 |
16. Cuba | 16 | 15 | +1 |
17. Belarus | 13 | 12 | +1 |
18. Hungary | 13 | 18 | -5 |
19. India | 12 | 6 | +6 |
20. Kazakhstan | 12 | 13 | -1 |
21. Kenya | 11 | 11 | 0 |
22. Jamaica | 10 | 12 | -2 |
23. New Zealand | 10 | 13 | -3 |
24. Poland | 10 | 10 | 0 |
25. Iran | 8 | 12 | -4 |
26. Romania | 8 | 9 | -1 |
27. Azerbaijan | 8 | 10 | -2 |
28. Czech Republic | 8 | 10 | -2 |
29. Denmark | 7 | 9 | -2 |
30. Turkey | 7 | 5 | +2 |
Top 30 total medals | 771 | 801 | -30 |
Other countries | 190 | 160 | +30 |
Total medals | 961 | 961 | 0 |