Team SA get short shrift from Olympic forecasters

 

Spec_RioColl_Tetiere_v2_1600x655The news is bleak for South Africa if you’re an Olympic fan.

PricewaterhouseCoopers and its smart economists have rattled the bones and come up with a projection of who will win what at the Rio Olympics.

Despite local sport bosses having stuck their necks out and predicted a haul of 10 medals, PwC’s boffins don’t even rank SA in the top 30 with nations like New Zealand, Azerbaijan and even Iran reckoned to have a greater chance.

The study is well worth a read, but for those with short attention spans, here’s a summary of the key findings:

  • Brazil team set to benefit from “home town” effect.
  • Economic size matters in medal tally – but David can still beat Goliath.
  • US and China to renew their top-of-the-table tussle in 2016.
  • The US will again head the table, capturing a few more medals than in London. China will again be in second place in the table.
  • Now it is no longer the host country, Great Britain may find it difficult to match its exceptional performance in London 2012 – though the PwC model suggests it should remain as high as fourth in the medal table.
  • Host nations generally punch above their weight at the Olympics, which bodes well for the Brazil team in Rio, despite the country’s recent economic problems. The model projects they could win around 25 medals in Rio, up from 17 in London.
  • Of the under-performing nations relative to population and GDP, the model still suggests that India leads the way.

The following economic and political factors were found to be statistically significant in explaining the number of medals won by each country at previous Olympic Games:

  • Size of economies (measured by GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates).
  • Performance in the previous two Olympic Games.
  • Whether the country is host nation.

In general, the number of medals won increases with the population and economic wealth of the country; but there are exceptions like Jamaica and Kenya. Jamaica, for example, is projected to win 0.4 medals in Rio for every $bn of GDP, while the same ratio is only around 0.02 for the UK and Russia, and around 0.005-0.006 for the US and China.

“David can sometimes beat Goliath in the Olympic arena, although superpowers like the US and China continue to dominate the top of the medals table,” says PwC chief economist John Hawksworth.

In the extract below, the model estimates the top 12 medal-winning countries in Rio compared to London 2012 – the full table is lower down.

Country Model estimate of medal total in Rio 2016 Medal total in London 2012 Difference
1. US 108 103 +5
2. China 98 88 +10
3. Russia1 70 81 -11
4. Great Britain 52 65 -13
5. Germany 40 44 -4
6. Australia 35 35 0
7. France 34 34 0
8. Japan 33 38 -5
9. South Korea 27 28 -1
10. Italy 26 28 -2
11. Brazil 25 17 +8
12. Ukraine 20 20 0
  1. If Russian athletes are not able to compete, this will have a material impact on the medal totals of other countries.

Past Olympic performance is important, reflecting the stronger sporting traditions in some countries, and the level of government funding for Olympic sports. Adds John Hawksworth: “We can see this effect at work in China recently, where state support contributed greatly to their Olympic success in Beijing and London.”

Naturally, all models are subject to margins of error and can never take full account of the human factor of exceptional individual performances. 

Country Model estimate of medal total in Rio 2016 Medal total in London 2012 Difference
1. USA 108 103 +5
2. China 98 88 +10
3. Russia 701 81 -11
4. Great Britain 52 65 -13
5. Germany 40 44 -4
6. Australia 35 35 0
7. France 34 34 0
8. Japan 33 38 -5
9. South Korea 27 28 -1
10. Italy 26 28 -2
11. Brazil 25 17 +8
12. Ukraine 20 20 0
13. Canada 17 18 -1
14. Netherlands 17 20 -3
15. Spain 17 17 0
16. Cuba 16 15 +1
17. Belarus 13 12 +1
18. Hungary 13 18 -5
19. India 12 6 +6
20. Kazakhstan 12 13 -1
21. Kenya 11 11 0
22. Jamaica 10 12 -2
23. New Zealand 10 13 -3
24. Poland 10 10 0
25. Iran 8 12 -4
26. Romania 8 9 -1
27. Azerbaijan 8 10 -2
28. Czech Republic 8 10 -2
29. Denmark 7 9 -2
30. Turkey 7 5 +2
Top 30 total medals 771 801 -30
Other countries 190 160 +30
Total medals 961 961 0