Courageous or cautious? Bold or brittle?

On Friday, the waiting game ends when Heyneke Meyer names his 31-man squad for the Rugby World Cup. History dictates that coaches largely play it safe with such selections. There’s no Robbie Brink waiting to fly in from left field à la 1995, although there are some minor gambles – Morné Steyn or Elton Jantjes? Heinrich Brussow or Oupa Mohoje? None constitutes a drama.

The list below is whom I believe Meyer will select, contingent on two vital requirements: form and transformation. If there are two players of a similar standard, one black, one white, Meyer must do the right thing. He’s a smart man. He will know this.

Nine of the players on this list are black (bang on target, apparently). In 2011, eight of the 30 were black. Ordinarily this wouldn’t matter. But this is South Africa.

The Boks would lose nothing by going with this mix. Rudi Paige and Elton Jantjes are no more underdone than Fourie du Preez and Duane Vermeulen, if you get my drift.

There will be some complaints, but not many valid ones. Twenty two of the players on my list were easy selections. Versatility and common sense determine the others.

Mohoje’s usefulness as a lock and loose forward make him a must. I’ve plumped for Vincent Koch, too, notwithstanding how the Pumas smashed him. He’s better than that, plus he suffered from eccentric refereeing.

I’m sorry that Lions strongman Julian Redelinghuys was never in the running. So too teammate Jaco Kriel, although when you pare it down it’s hard to see who he could unseat.

It’s bad luck for Siya Kolisi, Marcel Coetzee and Warren Whiteley, but Schalk Burger can play six, seven or eight. Plus Francois Louw will be back in harness. The two-fetcher flank idea hasn’t cottoned on here yet either, so bad luck for Brussow.

Assuming Handré Pollard and Pat Lambie are the go-to guys at flyhalf, the next selection is only third choice anyway. All the talk of Steyn offering insurance is moot. Rather have Jantjes there carving up the defences of the lesser teams.

Even with one leg, Jean de Villiers is going to be selected, so it’s likely Lionel Mapoe and Frans Steyn get the rough side of the pineapple. No-one said international rugby was easy.

JP Pietersen sneaks in because he can play 13, 14 or 15, plus his defensive game is sharper than Hendricks’.

The announcement will be broadcast live on SS1 from 5.30pm on Friday.

Let’s see.

 

LIKELY SPRINGBOK RWC SQUAD

 

PROPS (5)

Jannie du Plessis

Beast Mtawarira

Trevor Nyakane

Frans Malherbe

Vincent Koch

UNLUCKY: Steven Kitshoff, Heinke van der Merwe, Coenie Oosthuizen, Marcel van der Merwe.

 

HOOKERS (3)

Bismarck du Plessis

Adriaan Strauss

Schalk Brits

UNLUCKY: Scarra Ntubeni

 

LOCKS (4)

Eben Etzebeth

Victor Matfield

Pieter-Steph du Toit

Lood de Jager

UNLUCKY: Franco Mostert, Flippie van der Merwe.

 

LOOSE FORWARDS (5)

Francois Louw

Willem Alberts

Duane Vermeulen

Schalk Burger

Oupa Mohoje

UNLUCKY: Heinrich Brussow, Siya Kolisi, Warren Whiteley, Marcel Coetzee, Nizaam Carr.

 

SCRUMHALVES (3)

Fourie du Preez

Ruan Pienaar

Rudi Paige

UNLUCKY: Cobus Reinach, Faf de Klerk.

 

FLYHALVES (3)

Handré Pollard

Pat Lambie

Elton Jantjes

UNLUCKY:  Morné Steyn.

 

CENTRES (4)

Damien De Allende, Jean de Villiers, Jesse Kriel, Jan Serfontein.

UNLUCKY:  Lionel Mapoe, Frans Steyn.

 

WINGS (3)

Bryan Habana

Lwazi Mvovo

JP Pietersen

UNLUCKY: Francois Hougaard, Cornal Hendricks.

 

FULLBACKS (1)

Willie le Roux

UNLUCKY:  Zane Kirchner.